Date and Time
January 9, 2008
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM

Availability
Open to the public
No RSVP required

Background: Numerous studies have documented how AIDS is creating a new generation of orphans in Africa. However, there is very little evidence on how AIDS is affecting the lives of Africa's dependent elderly. This paper uses novel data to establish the relationship between AIDS and growth in Africa's "orphaned elderly" -- seniors who have lost their adult caregivers and generally lack public sector support.

Methods: We matched detailed, nationally-representative household surveys conducted in 18 African countries between 1990 and 2005 with panel data on AIDS mortality in each country. We then estimate the relationship between the AIDS deaths and elderly living arrangements -- controlling for personal characteristics and country and year effects -- using ordinary least squares (OLS) and probit models fit by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE).

Findings: A one percentage point increase in the AIDS mortality is associated with a 1% to 0.5% increase in "orphaned elderly." In our 18 study countries (representing 60% of the Sub-Saharan population), this implies that an additional 856,000 to 1,244,000 elderly Africans live alone (without a working age adult). Additionally, a one percentage point increase in the AIDS mortality is associated with a 0.4% to 0:5% increase in elderly primary caregivers of children under the age of 10.

Interpretation: In the absence of formal elder care and public pension programs, Africa's AIDS pandemic is forcing a large number of elderly to live on their own to a greater extent than previously recognized. Public policy efforts to curb HIV/AIDS could have large spillover benefits to Africa's elderly.