CHP/PCOR core faculty member Jay Bhattacharya presented research on "Trends in Disability in Late Life" for an Institute of Medicine workshop on "Disability in America: An Update," held Aug. 1-2 in Washington, D.C. The workshop convened a group of nationally known clinicians and researchers to discuss methodological and policy issues relevant to disability; trends in disability; and disability across the life span.

Bhattacharya presented a paper on "Chronic Disease and Trends in Severe Disability in Working Age Populations," co-authored by Darius Lakdawalla and former CHP/PCOR staff member Kavita Choudhry. Using 1984 to 1996 data from the National Health Interview Survey, the authors broke down disability trends into two parts: the part of the trend attributable to changes in the prevalence of chronic disease, and the part attributable to changes in the prevalence of disability among those with chronic disease.

Among its key conclusions, the researchers' analysis found that (1) among those aged 60 and over, both chronically ill and non-chronically ill populations were less likely to be disabled in 1996 than they were in 1984; and (2) the two main sources of increasing disability among those under age 60 are growing obese populations and an increasingly disabled chronically ill population.

Bhattacharya asserts that more research is needed to determine whether recent increases in disability rates among younger (under age 60) Americans will be permanent, or merely temporary. In any case, he asserts, "it should be clear that accurate forecasts of future Medicare expenditures cannot be constructed [without considering] the increasing disability prevalence among younger populations."