Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University


CISAC News



June 20, 2006 - In the News

If North Korea tests an intercontinental ballistic missile, as it is reportedly preparing to do, President Bush may find renewed support for national missile defense, Dean Wilkening, CISAC science program director, told San Francisco's KGO-TV 7 (ABC) News.

North Korea poised to test missile

Appeared in KGO-TV 7 News (ABC), San Francisco, June 19, 2006

By Mark Matthews

It's on the launch pad and ready to go. Senior U.S. officials tell ABC News that North Korea appears to have made final preparations for testing a long range missile, capable of reaching us here on the west coast of the United States. What will this mean for American politics?

A lot of people are worried about what could happen. North Korea is believed to have nuclear weapons. If they are able to test and perfect a long range missile, the combination makes for frightening possibilities.

The missile is believed to be a Taepodong 2 -- a missile with a 4,000 mile range. It was last tested in 1998. A year later, North Korea bowed to international pressure and agreed to suspend testing.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said a launch would deepen North Korea's isolation.

Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State: "It would be a very serious matter and indeed a provocative act should North Korea decide to launch that missile."

U.N. ambassador John Bolton said he's consulting with security council members on steps that might be taken if North Korea fires.

John Bolton, U.S. Ambassador to United Nations: "We need to be prepared in the eventuality that the North Koreans don't do the wise thing and cancel the launch."

The president's spokesman says the U.S. is talking directly with North Korean representatives at the U.N. to find out just what options the U.S. has.

We went to Dean Wilkening, the director of Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation.

Prof. Dean Wilkening, Ph.D. Stanford University: "Short of condemning them in public and saying how unwelcome this launch would be, there is not a lot the United States can do."

Wilkening's expertise is in ballistic missile defense and he says the North Korean threat will increase support for that national missile defense system already deployed in Alaska and at Vandenberg Airforce Base. The system has only had limited testing and has hit the target only five times out of 10.

So politically the president could get more missile defense support, while Republicans in general may find themselves a target in the upcoming elections according to the director of U.C. Berkeley's Institute of International Studies.

Prof. Steve Weber, Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley: "The Democrats will certainly leading up to this election make the argument that this administration has had its eye on exactly the wrong ball."

Professor Steve Weber expects Democrats to say while we were fighting a war in Iraq, against a country that didn't have weapons of mass destruction, North Korea was building an atomic bomb and a long range missile.

Prof. Steve Weber: "It's a winning argument for Democrats. It's going to be very difficult for Republicans to refute."

Weber says Republicans may respond by playing down the importance of this missile launch, and that may not be difficult. Experts will tell you it's one thing to test a missile and another to fit it with a warhead and a guidance system that'll put it where you want it. Professor Wilkening tells me the last time the North Koreans tested its long range missile, it blew up in the air.




Topics: Elections and electoral reform | International Security and Defense | Missile defense | Iraq | North Korea | United States