It's one of the most frightening possible scenarios: a 10-kiloton nuclear device detonates in Washington D.C. on a weekday morning. Thousands die instantaneously. But what should the survivors do? Encouraging survivors to take shelter in a basement would save far more lives than having them hide elsewhere or attempt to flee on foot or by car, according to Lawrence Wein, a CISAC faculty member and the Jeffrey S. Skoll professor of management science. His paper on the subject, co-written with two Stanford graduate students, recently won the 2010 Best Paper award for the journal Risk Analysis. They conclude that the "government should initiate an aggressive outreach program to educate citizens and the private sector about the importance of sheltering in place in a basement for at least 12 hours after a terrorist nuclear detonation."