Thirteen members of the 2010 CISAC Honors Class in International Security Studies graduated on a balmy summer day June 11, joining 101 alumni of the popular program that marks its 10th anniversary this year.

Thomas Fingar, who headed the program this year with Stephen Stedman, praised the students for what they accomplished, but noted that Commencement is merely the beginning. "What you have done thus far is preparation," said Fingar, the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow. "When you walk out of the graduation ceremony on Sunday, you'll begin applying what you've learned." CISAC's program is in keeping with "Stanford's general orientation to be scholars and doers," he added. "If we're to work in the field of international security, international heath, energy security and dozens of other areas, the classroom is only the starting point. The goal is to use what is learned here on campus to change the world."

The Center's alumni are already doing that, said Stedman, the Freeman-Spogli Senior Fellow. "Part of the mission statement at CISAC is to train the next generation of international security specialists," he said. "If you look at where these 101 graduates are right now, you'll find them in international organizations, the U.S. government, working on the Hill, in the White House, working at the State Department [and] the Pentagon."

The Class of 2010, who produced theses on subjects ranging from why some countries experience persistent civil war to the threat posted by homegrown Jihadists in the United States, are expected to make their own contributions to "change the world" as Fingar stated. They include:

• Bertram Chun Hou Ang, Economics & Political Science                                                Military Innovation in Wartime: The Surge in Iraq as a Case Study

In the context of military innovation, the surge in Iraq represents a particularly intriguing case of wartime adaptation by the U.S. military, involving a successful transition from conventional to unconventional warfare. Defining innovation as a change in organizational routine represented by modifications to tactics, strategy and doctrine, this thesis explores factors and processes resulting in the surge. It finds that the surge was the result of several disparate factors and processes. First, civilians working with military mavericks aided in the conception and decision to implement the surge. Second, a change in institutional leadership removed the impediments to change in the form of Rumsfeld and Casey, replacing them with leaders who were more willing to question assumptions and strategy. Third, ground commanders learned successful counterinsurgency approaches from each other and their experiences were in turn utilized in the formation of doctrine and the implementation of tactics. This thesis recognizes the significance of adaptive leadership in the military and the Department of Defense, and recommends its further emphasis in preparation for future conflicts. Further institutionalization of feedback processes is also recommended to facilitate the incorporation of lessons learned to speed up innovation. 

• Amir Badat, International Relations                                                                          Does Article VI Matter? The Role of Disarmament in the Nonproliferation Calculations of the Non-Aligned                                                                     

The Obama administration recently embarked upon a devoted effort to pursue nuclear disarmament, as called for by Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. One of the motivations driving the administration's pursuit is the belief that progress on nuclear disarmament will achieve cooperation through the Treaty's non-nuclear weapon states on nonproliferation measures like the IAEA Additional Protocol. Although the perceived connection between disarmament and nonproliferation has guided U.S. nuclear policy, no systematic study has examined the nature of this connection. This thesis aims to explore the role of the nuclear weapons states' Article VI nuclear disarmament commitments in the nonproliferation calculations of the non-nuclear weapon states, specifically focusing on the Non-Aligned Movement. It finds that non-weapon state members of the Non-Aligned Movement behave in different ways. "NAM Leaders" view Article VI as an identity issue, and thus maintain high standards on disarmament. On the other hand, "NAM others, are not heavily influenced by Article VI commitments, but instead, base their nonproliferation decisions on national security and economic interests. Overall, Article VI progress plays an important indirect role in weakening the inflexible positions of the NAM leaders and facilitating nonproliferation cooperation among the NAM others. This analysis suggests that the Obama administration should continue on its pursuit of nuclear disarmament while making a concerted effort to engage NAM states on the nonproliferation front. 

• Daniel R. Cassman, Political Science                                                                      Persistence and Recurrence of Internal Armed Conflict

This thesis analyzes factors that affect the duration and relapse of internal armed conflicts. I use a data set containing 173 conflicts that occurred worldwide between 1946 and 2008. I find that ethnically diverse, poor and populous countries are more prone to persistent and recurrent internal conflict. I find that decisive victories tend to be more stable than agreement, which in turn are more stable than conflicts that end due to low activity. My research indicates that peacekeepers are highly effective in reducing the chances that a conflict will relapse. Through a set of case studies focused on recurrence, I determine that countries with a large plurality ethnic group and several smaller groups are prone to recurrent conflict. In a second set of case studies, I argue that exogenous support for rebel organizations is crucial to sustaining many persistent conflicts. I stress that negotiators and policymakers must be acutely aware of the risks of recurrence when mediating internal conflicts. I recommend the deployment of peacekeepers to enforce agreements and the inclusion of ethnic minorities in government, especially in situations at high risk of relapse. Finally, I argue that isolating and neutralizing exogenous support for rebels is critical to ending persistent conflicts.

• Philippe B. de Koning, International Relations                                                      The Withering Sword? Explaining the 21st Century Decline in Japanese Military Expenditures

In the light of a changing security context in the past two decades, Japan has taken several steps towards a more military-oriented foreign policy, especially through a high number of peacekeeping operations and contributions to the war efforts led by the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. Despite moves in the direction of a foreign policy in line with realist expectations, Japan's military expenditures have actually been diminishing since 2002. While some scholars continue to assert that Japan is in fact remilitarizing, its declining defense budget in fact translates into a waning military capability that could undermine its rising international military activities. This paper seeks to answer the question: why has Japan been curtailing its military spending and capabilities in the context of a rising threat environment? To unravel this puzzle, this paper analyzes the decline in military expenditures through three different theoretical lenses--alliance theory, domestic politics, and bureaucratic politics. This paper concludes that a bureaucratic politics model best accounts for the observed decline. The forces pressing for fiscal restrain in the bureaucratic bargaining process, embodied by the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office, gained leverage in the bargaining process once their interests became aligned in 2001. The rise to power of Koizumi, and even more significantly the creation of the Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy facilitated the change of direction seen in the budget. Finally, the last chapter of this thesis explores the policy implications of this paper's findings for the future of Japanese security policy, particularly in the context of the newly elected DPJ government.

• Daniel Evan Leifer, Biology                                                                                 The Cienfuegos Crisis of 1970
• Ashley Lohmann, International Relations                                                            Jihad on Main Street: Explaining the Threat of Jihadist Terrorism to the American Homeland Since 9/11                                                                                   *William J. Perry Prize

Since September 11, 2001, 26 jihadist plots and attacks have targeted the American homeland, but because the details of the plots and attacks as well as the profiles of their perpetrators vary greatly, scholars, government officials, and other authorities still disagree about the seriousness of threat posed by jihadist terrorism to the United States. This study provides a clearer understanding of the nature of jihadist terrorism in the U.S. by examining all 26 plots and attacks in detail. It concludes that jihadist terrorism is generally a minimally threatening, homegrown phenomenon, but some plots and attacks still emerge that do pose a serious threat to U.S. national security. Of the 26 plots and attacks since 9/11, seven can be considered "serious," and the emergence of these plots and attacks can best be explained by examining those using explosive devices separately from those using firearms. Regarding the first category, Western jihadists' contacts with veteran jihadist organizations (such as al-Qaeda) and access to training camps explain the ability of some to construct serious bombing plots. As for the second category, the radicalization of individuals with criminal or military experience accounts for the preparation (and even execution) of serious shooting plots. As a result, the critical point at which a would-be bomber becomes a serious threat is his initial contact with a jihadist group, whereas the critical point for a would-be shooter is his radicalization. Understanding this distinction will allow security services to have a clearer and more nuanced picture of the jihadist threat to the United States.

• Raffi Christoher Mardirosian, Public Policy & Economics                                        Infrastructure Development in the Shadow of Conflict: Aligning Incentives and Attracting Investment

Multilateral and donor fundraising for post-conflict infrastructure reconstruction is insufficient to meet the investment needs for adequate service provision. Higher levels of private investment would speed and expand infrastructure delivery, but investors are largely unwilling to deploy capital to post-conflict infrastructure projects due to elevated political risk mitigation mechanisms available to private foreign investors to invest in post-conflict scenarios. An analysis of political risk insurance contracts finds deficient structures and prohibitive pricing. New political risk insurance projects and subsidy mechanisms can optimize risk and return allocation arrangements. Specifically, the introduction of commercial breach of contract protection would mitigate a key risk for project developers. The study also investigates historical post-conflict infrastructure investment trends, and finds that telecommunications projects receive funding directly after conflict, followed by transportation, energy and, finally, water projects. Using these and other econometric findings in this paper, better targeted packages of multilateral loan guarantees, expanded political risk insurance, availability payments, and cask grants can be employed to raise project returns to levels attractive to private sector investors.

• Ben Picozzi, Philosophy                                                                                       The Normative Garbage Can: The Emergence of Civilian Protection Norms

This thesis critically evaluates the constructivist claim that norms are vehicles for shared meaning. Case studies drawn from the history of protection norms show that norms emerge out of a messy system that resembles something like the garbage can models found in the organizational theory literature. This messiness ensures that no authoritative interpretation exists. Norm entrepreneurs wait for opportunities to advance their ideas. They may alter the substance of these ideas or enter into coalitions with actors who do not share their preference rather than let opportunities pass. At the same time, norm entrepreneurs have very little ability to maintain control over these ideas. Norms thus reflect a multiplicity of actors' preferences. In order to accommodate these divergent preferences, norms incorporate ambiguity. This ambiguity may be intentional or it may be accidental. This thesis concludes that these findings warrant neither pessimism nor optimism. Although norm entrepreneurship may not result in shared meanings, it nevertheless frames policy debates that an, over time, produce remarkable political outcomes.

• Sam Stone, Mathematics and International Relations                                               Gas & Geopolitics: The Foreign Policy Implications of Energy Import Dependency   *Firestone Medal

In recent years, much attention has focused on the dangers of dependency on energy imports. Fears of energy import dependency are particularly acute in Eastern Europe, where most countries remain heavily dependent on Russian gas, but similarly dependent relationships exist across the globe. Most energy security research focuses on exporters; this thesis contributes to the study of energy security by exploring the effects of energy dependence on importers. It examines data from 167 dyadic oil and gas trade relationships (1990-2008) to answer two questions. First, does gas import dependency have a more profound effect on foreign policy creation than oil dependency? Structural factors predict it should and the study confirms this empirically. Second, what factors exacerbate or mitigate the foreign policy effects of gas import dependency? The study identifies three quantifiable factors that tend to increase the foreign policy affinity importers display towards their suppliers, and two quantifiable factors that tend to reduce the foreign policy affinity importers show towards their suppliers. Three case studies (Japan/Indonesia, Argentina/Bolivia, and Poland/Russia) confirm the plausibility of these statistical findings. They also highlight how the ownership structure of gas production and distribution can mitigate, or exacerbate, the foreign policy effects of gas imports. This study is intended to be useful to policymakers gauging the impact of gas import dependency.

• Gautam Thapar, Political Science                                                                         The Role of Conditions in U.S. Assistance to Pakistan

Dating back to the mid-1950s, U.S. assistance to Pakistan has been driven by short-term geopolitical goals. In each period of U.S. assistance, conditions have been placed on the provision of aid, and in each instance they have been violated by Pakistan. Despite such defections, U.S. aid to Pakistan consistently persisted unabated, or in some cases, even increased. The central question this paper, then, is why were the conditions of aid agreements with Pakistan not more strictly enforced? Three important variables answer this question. First, geopolitical constraints subordinated the importance of aid conditions. Legitimate concerns about Pakistan's loyalty and use of U.S. aid were written off because Pakistan was seen as an important ally to the attainment of a strategic end. Second, the President's authority in foreign policymaking sidelined Congressional efforts at enforcing aid conditions. Though Congress frequently expressed concerns about the nature of the U.S.-Pakistan alliance, the Executive largely dismissed these concerns. Third, Pakistan exploited its strategic leverage to extract U.S. assistance. This paper focuses on the three most prominent periods of U.S. assistance to Pakistan--between 1954 and 1965, between 1980 and 1990, and between 2001 and the present.

• Son Ca Vu, Management Science & Engineering                                                     Building a Nuclear Family: A Social Network Analysis of the A.Q. Khan Proliferation Ring

The A.Q. Khan nuclear proliferation network represents the first nuclear suppliers group with sufficient autonomy to construct a comprehensive, non-exclusively state-controlled proliferation network. This thesis seeks to explain how the Khan network evolved from a state-controlled import network to a largely supplier-controlled export network through the application of social network analysis Data was gathered on Khan import and export network members. Actor interrelationships were coded and used to analyze an map the network. Three main findings have been identified. First, Pakistani government involvement in creating relationship ties was prominent in the import network but less overt in the export network. Network introduction ties along with school and work history ties play the largest roles in building relationships during the export network. Kinship plays a small role in both networks. Second, the transformation of the Khan network from a star structure, with Khan as the central hub, to a mesh structure, with multiple powerful central actors, helps investigators better understand the evolution of future proliferation networks. Finally, the network analysis supports the argument that the next supplier-controlled export network, or "latent export networks" can only being where state programs have been established, particularly in countries such as North Korea or Iran.

• Georgia Wells, Human Biology                                                                             The Relationship Between Social Science Provision, Militancy and Violence: Egypt in the 1990s

This study explored the relationship between social service provision and a community's involvement in terrorism. I used Egypt as a case study to statistically examine whether communities with a greater proportion of fully vaccinated children produced per capita fewer terrorists. Using The Global Terrorism Database to examine violence between 1990 and 1997 and The Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 1995, I found that, in general, communities with a greater proportion of fully vaccinated children produced fewer terrorists per capita than communities with lower vaccination rates. While demonstrating the correlation between vaccination level and attack rate, I also discovered that terrorists generally preferred to attack close to home, with over 50 percent of attacks occurring within 50 miles of a perpetrator's hometown. I examined four Egyptian provinces that represented different combinations of social service provision, and observed the level of violence in each province. While I discovered interesting correlations in three of the provinces, anomalies in the fourth suggested, in this limited sample size at least, that although social services can reduce levels of violence, it would be foolish for any government to believe that simply servicing a region could be preventive against terrorist attacks, since violence can arise from a number of factors.

• Hao Yan, Political Science                                                                                     Beijing's Quest for Oil in Africa

China's growing interest in oil resources in Africa has attracted wide attention around the world, while opinions differ on the impacts of China's engagement with African oil-producing states. This thesis looks into the debate of China's role in the African oil market, and provides new observations that challenge much of the conventional wisdom in the Western media. The study examines the historical and political context of China's increasing dependence on foreign oil imports, and analyzes the complex nature of China's oil investment in Africa, with case studies of its activities in Angola and Sudan. The thesis presents some lesser-known facts about China's oil diplomacy in Africa and assesses the policy implications of Beijing's revised approach to traditional doctrines of intervention, development and foreign aid.