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Michael M. May, PhD
Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Emeritus; FSI Senior Fellow; CISAC Faculty MemberView Michael May's bio, list of research, recent publications and events »
February 20th, 2007
The null hypothesis in Iraq
Op-ed: Los Angeles Times on February 18, 2007Those for and against the "surge" in Iraq have made predictions of what will happen if their recommendations are not followed. "But there's only one thing we know for sure," according to CISAC's Michael May. "When the collection of politicians and pundits we call 'Washington' makes predictions about countries in which the U.S. has 'vital interests'(and especially about countries with which we have had bad relations), the predictions--even when they contradict one another--are almost always wrong." The solution, May writes in the Los Angeles Times, is for Washington to take a tip from scientists and start with the "null hypothesis" to guard against bias in testing predictions. Policy makers should assume that no theory starts out with more predictive value than chance, and then use data to prove which theory is more sound.
December 12th, 2006
A crude awakening: Five FSI scholars talk to Stanford magazine about energy security
CISAC, CDDRL, FSI Stanford, PESD NewsMichael May, Michael McFaul, Scott Sagan, David Victor, and John Weyant talk to Stanford magazine for the November/December cover story on energy security. It's not our oil dependence that's the problem, say these scholars - it's our vulnerability to oil producers who use revenues for political purposes that work against our own. Read more »
October 25th, 2006
CISAC researcher proposes database for use in nuclear forensics
Press ReleaseIn Nature magazine, CISAC's Michael May and two colleagues propose an international database of technical information on nuclear programs worldwide that, in the event of a terrorist nuclear explosion, could be used to track down the bomb's origin. The database would also help deter the illegal transfer of nuclear weapons materials, the authors suggest. 
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September 29th, 2005
The real nuclear threat is to America's bases
Op-ed: Financial Times on September 22, 2005The six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons raise public concerns about whether Pyongyang will indeed dismantle its nuclear weapons program or whether it will pursue long-range nuclear missiles that could destroy Seoul, Tokyo or an American city. Overlooked is the threat to U.S. military capabilities, write CISAC's Michael M. May and colleague Michael Nacht in this Financial Times op-ed. Read more »
August 9th, 2005
Former national laboratory director to join CISAC as visiting professor
Siegfried S. Hecker, a senior fellow and emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, will join CISAC as a visiting professor in 2005-2006. He will teach undergraduates and pursue research and policy advising on nuclear proliferation and the security of nuclear weapons stockpiles. Read more »