While the breakup of the Soviet Union received much publicity, few attempts have been made to throroughly analyze the attempt to create a successor alliance--the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This lack of attention may be explained by the poor performance of the CIS to date.  But it can hardly be accepted.  Presently at a crossroads, the Commonwealth has three basic options for the future: complete dissolution, consolidation along the originally envisaged guidelines, or some kind of transformation, each with unique and far-reaching consequences for both the newly independent states (NIS) and the world. Clearly, the final decision lies with the ex-Soviet republics. But the West seems to be in a position to effectively influence the republics' choice.

This paper discusses three different but closely related issues: What future exists for the CIS, if any? What are the current Western, specifically American, attitudes toward the Commonwealth? And what is the best course for the West to follow?