Researchers
Beatriz Magaloni (Principal Investigator) - Stanford University
Alberto Diaz-Cayeros - UCSD
Gabriela Calderón - Stanford University
Gustavo Robles - Stanford University
Jorge Olarte - Stanford University

We examine the conditions under which the federal government strategies to contain criminal organizations are likely to bring greater security versus contribute to escalate criminal violence in Mexico. There is an important debate in Mexico about whether the war on drug cartels by the current administration is responsible for the escalation of violence. Some scholars argue that when the government captures a kingpin or lieutenant the beheading strategy causes the cartels to fragment, diversify their criminal activities, and extend their geographic reach. A serious limitation of most of the existing studies is that they do not adequately address the challenges to identifying causal effects. Not surprisingly, the federal government often intervenes in areas where there is already increasing violence and inter-cartel fighting. Thus, naive estimates may suffer severely from reverse causality. Our empirical strategy is to construct credible counterfactuals by using Synthetic Control Methods to construct "control" municipalities that have a trend in homicides that is similar to that of "treated" municipalities. We estimate effects at various time-spans, which allow us to assess whether the increase in violence that might result is temporary or relatively permanent.

Click HERE to see some working maps related to violence in Mexico.

Contact
Beatriz Magaloni